Research
Research in trade, spatial measurement, place-based policy, labor and AI, and economic theory.
A manuscript or institutional publication is available.
Job market paper · 2026
Does the rural private-leverage gap persist when rural and urban projects are compared within the same Community Development Entity?
Sole author; Katia Antunes and Elizaveta Gonchar are acknowledged contributors
Community Development Entity fixed effects · order-invariant decomposition · bunching test
Preprint · 2025
Does a gravity model fit better when bilateral distance reflects where population and measured economic activity are located within countries?
Coauthor with Elizaveta Gonchar
gravity model · VIIRS nightlights · population-weighted geodesic distance
Public working paper · 2024
Under what conditions can economic equilibrium be represented as an optimal-transport problem in an infinite-dimensional Hilbert space?
Sole author
optimal transport · tensor-valued measures · nonlinear operator theory
Analysis is underway, with public material linked where available.
Book and workbook in progress · August 2026
How can visual models make estimators, sampling variation, and causal comparisons easier to reason about?
Role: With Elizaveta Gonchar. Part One, chapters 1–10, drafted as of August 14, 2026.
These are questions, designs, or data builds; no completed results are claimed.
Active development · no results yet · 2026
Did early-career employment change differently after widespread generative-AI adoption in occupations with greater measured AI exposure?
Coauthor with Shane Vardanyan
continuous-exposure event study · triple difference · Current Population Survey microdata
Active development · no results yet · 2026
Can a time-varying measure of bilateral effective distance represent changes in population, economic activity, infrastructure, and transport corridors?
Coauthor with Elizaveta Gonchar
least-cost paths · three-way fixed-effects PPML · satellite-calibrated panel construction
Active development · no results yet · 2026
Can public shipping and port records identify the feedback between sanctions-evasion behavior and the observation system used to measure Russian seaborne crude?
Sole author
AIS track linkage · port-arrival reconciliation · structural parameter design
Work in progress · 2026
Which task-level AI-exposure ratings continue to align with public measures of task use that appeared after the ratings were constructed?
Sole author
within-occupation models · paired cluster bootstrap · out-of-time validation
Active development · no results yet · 2026
How has Ukraine's wartime economic activity reorganized across space when official measurement is itself disrupted by conflict, occupation, and displacement?
Coauthor with Elizaveta Gonchar; contribution statement pending joint ratification
spatial decomposition · remote sensing · administrative-data reconciliation
Work in progress · 2026
How should a trade model represent settings where the equilibrium changes the observation system used to measure that equilibrium?
Sole author
economic measurement · observation feedback · theory design
Completed institutional work from earlier stages of the research.
Published dissertation · 2024
How do network position, within-country spatial heterogeneity, and optimal transport change the representation of international trade?
Sole-authored doctoral dissertation
structural gravity · network centrality · optimal transport
Explore by connection
Projects grouped by shared methods and subjects.
Question
Filter by metadata tag or maturity to see which projects share an explicit connection. Line weight shows how many tags they share.
10 records; 14 shared-tag connections.
| Record | Year | Maturity | Status | Metadata tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade in the spotlight: enhancing gravity model predictions with nightlights and population-weighted distance measures | 2025 | circulating | preprint | trade, gravity, nightlights, effective-distance, geospatial |
| Effective distance: a satellite-calibrated bilateral trade-cost panel, 2000-2024 | 2026 | development | draft | trade, gravity, effective-distance, satellite-economics, panel-data |
| Occlusion and adaptation: a closed-loop spatial-labor model of Ukraine's wartime economic reorganization, 2022-2025 | 2026 | development | draft | ukraine, wartime-economy, spatial-labor, satellite-economics, sanctions |
| Redefining Trade Dynamics: Incorporating Network Centrality, Spatial Heterogeneity, and Optimal Transport Theory into Models of International Trade | 2024 | earlier | published | international-trade, networks, gravity, spatial-economics, optimal-transport |
| A unifying framework for economic equilibrium and optimal transport in infinite-dimensional Hilbert spaces | 2024 | circulating | working paper | optimal-transport, equilibrium-theory, infinite-dimensional, Hilbert-spaces |
| Human or Machine? Out-of-Time Validation of Task-Level AI Exposure Ratings | 2026 | development | draft | labor, artificial-intelligence, measurement, validation, occupations |
| The rural mobilization gap in a U.S. place-based tax credit | 2026 | circulating | working paper | nmtc, blended-finance, rural, intermediary-FE |
| Penumbra: closed-loop observation under measurement gaps in cross-border trade | 2026 | development | draft | sanctions, satellite-economics, optimal-transport, measurement, shadow-trade |
| Empirical observation equilibria: the Russian seaborne-crude corridor, 2021-2024 | 2026 | development | draft | sanctions, russian-crude, AIS, satellite-economics, empirical-OT |
| AI and the Entry-Level Labor Market | 2026 | development | working paper | labor, artificial-intelligence, event-study, cps, early-career |
| First record | Second record | Shared tags | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade in the spotlight: enhancing gravity model predictions with nightlights and population-weighted distance measures | Effective distance: a satellite-calibrated bilateral trade-cost panel, 2000-2024 | trade, gravity, effective-distance | 3 |
| Trade in the spotlight: enhancing gravity model predictions with nightlights and population-weighted distance measures | Redefining Trade Dynamics: Incorporating Network Centrality, Spatial Heterogeneity, and Optimal Transport Theory into Models of International Trade | gravity | 1 |
| Effective distance: a satellite-calibrated bilateral trade-cost panel, 2000-2024 | Occlusion and adaptation: a closed-loop spatial-labor model of Ukraine's wartime economic reorganization, 2022-2025 | satellite-economics | 1 |
| Effective distance: a satellite-calibrated bilateral trade-cost panel, 2000-2024 | Redefining Trade Dynamics: Incorporating Network Centrality, Spatial Heterogeneity, and Optimal Transport Theory into Models of International Trade | gravity | 1 |
| Effective distance: a satellite-calibrated bilateral trade-cost panel, 2000-2024 | Penumbra: closed-loop observation under measurement gaps in cross-border trade | satellite-economics | 1 |
| Effective distance: a satellite-calibrated bilateral trade-cost panel, 2000-2024 | Empirical observation equilibria: the Russian seaborne-crude corridor, 2021-2024 | satellite-economics | 1 |
| Occlusion and adaptation: a closed-loop spatial-labor model of Ukraine's wartime economic reorganization, 2022-2025 | Penumbra: closed-loop observation under measurement gaps in cross-border trade | satellite-economics, sanctions | 2 |
| Occlusion and adaptation: a closed-loop spatial-labor model of Ukraine's wartime economic reorganization, 2022-2025 | Empirical observation equilibria: the Russian seaborne-crude corridor, 2021-2024 | satellite-economics, sanctions | 2 |
| Redefining Trade Dynamics: Incorporating Network Centrality, Spatial Heterogeneity, and Optimal Transport Theory into Models of International Trade | A unifying framework for economic equilibrium and optimal transport in infinite-dimensional Hilbert spaces | optimal-transport | 1 |
| Redefining Trade Dynamics: Incorporating Network Centrality, Spatial Heterogeneity, and Optimal Transport Theory into Models of International Trade | Penumbra: closed-loop observation under measurement gaps in cross-border trade | optimal-transport | 1 |
| A unifying framework for economic equilibrium and optimal transport in infinite-dimensional Hilbert spaces | Penumbra: closed-loop observation under measurement gaps in cross-border trade | optimal-transport | 1 |
| Human or Machine? Out-of-Time Validation of Task-Level AI Exposure Ratings | Penumbra: closed-loop observation under measurement gaps in cross-border trade | measurement | 1 |
| Human or Machine? Out-of-Time Validation of Task-Level AI Exposure Ratings | AI and the Entry-Level Labor Market | labor, artificial-intelligence | 2 |
| Penumbra: closed-loop observation under measurement gaps in cross-border trade | Empirical observation equilibria: the Russian seaborne-crude corridor, 2021-2024 | sanctions, satellite-economics | 2 |
Research inquiries
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