Empirical observation equilibria: the Russian seaborne-crude corridor, 2021-2024
Ian Helfrich
Empirical companion to the AROE theory paper. Tests the contraction hypothesis (H4) in the corridor where the closed-loop observation problem is sharpest: Russian seaborne crude under the 2022-present sanctions regime. Uses AIS-track data, port-arrival records, and shadow-fleet flag transitions to back out the observation operator's Frechet derivative. Provides the first direct empirical estimate of the feedback-contractivity constant in a real-world quantitative spatial setting.
Currently in the empirical-design and data-construction phase. Identification strategy and data plan are documented in the project README. No empirical results yet.
The corridor is uniquely instrumented: dense AIS coverage (when transmitting), port records from multiple counterparty jurisdictions, S&P Global commodity-flow data, and the Hilgenstock-Babina-Itskhoki public oil-cap monitoring infrastructure. The paper’s job is to use this density to identify the structural feedback-contractivity constant that the theory paper requires for uniqueness.