Effective distance: a satellite-calibrated bilateral trade-cost panel, 2000-2024
Can a time-varying measure of bilateral effective distance represent changes in population, economic activity, infrastructure, and transport corridors?
- Status
- Active development · no results yet · In preparation
- Role
- Coauthor with Elizaveta Gonchar
- Authors
- Elizaveta Gonchar, Ian Helfrich
- Method
- least-cost paths · three-way fixed-effects PPML · satellite-calibrated panel construction
- What this record does not establish
- No completed results, validated panel, coverage claim, or public data release exists yet.
A public manuscript is not yet available.
Abstract
Summary
In preparation; planned 2000-2024 panel and structural-gravity validation. The proposed construction will combine nightlights, gridded population, and transport networks to study time-varying bilateral effective distance. Planned validation and chokepoint applications are research designs, not completed results, and no public panel release is claimed.
Methods and notes
This planned extension of Trade in the Spotlight (SSRN 5202676) would add a transport-network layer, structural-gravity validation with three-way FE PPML, and applications to recent chokepoint shocks.
The motivation is that canonical bilateral distance measures are static, while population, infrastructure, and transport corridors change. Open satellite data and transport networks make a time-varying construction feasible to investigate.
The intended outputs are a documented panel, reproducible construction code, and validation results. Coverage, release venue, and row counts remain to be verified before publication.