18  Labor markets

unrate = await (await fetch("../data/fred/UNRATE.json")).json()
civpart = await (await fetch("../data/fred/CIVPART.json")).json()
payems = await (await fetch("../data/fred/PAYEMS.json")).json()

viewof labor_window = Inputs.range([2, 50], {value: 25, step: 1, label: "Years to display"})

{
  const cutoff = new Date()
  cutoff.setFullYear(cutoff.getFullYear() - labor_window)
  const filt = arr => arr.filter(d => new Date(d.date) >= cutoff).map(d => ({...d, date: new Date(d.date)}))
  return Plot.plot({
    width: 800, height: 320, marginLeft: 60, marginBottom: 50,
    x: {type: "utc"},
    y: {label: "Unemployment rate (%)", grid: true},
    marks: [
      Plot.ruleY([4], {stroke: "#888", strokeDasharray: "4 3"}),
      Plot.text([{x: cutoff, y: 4.15, l: "Textbook natural rate ≈ 4%"}], {x: "x", y: "y", text: "l", fill: "#888", dx: 30, fontSize: 10}),
      Plot.line(filt(unrate.observations), {x: "date", y: "value", stroke: "#0e7c7b", strokeWidth: 2})
    ]
  })
}

{
  const cutoff = new Date()
  cutoff.setFullYear(cutoff.getFullYear() - labor_window)
  const filt = arr => arr.filter(d => new Date(d.date) >= cutoff).map(d => ({...d, date: new Date(d.date)}))
  return Plot.plot({
    width: 800, height: 320, marginLeft: 60, marginBottom: 50,
    x: {type: "utc"},
    y: {label: "Labor force participation rate (%)", grid: true},
    marks: [
      Plot.line(filt(civpart.observations), {x: "date", y: "value", stroke: "#b7410e", strokeWidth: 2})
    ]
  })
}

html`<div style="display: flex; gap: 0.8rem; flex-wrap: wrap; margin: 1rem 0;">
  ${[
    ["Unemployment rate", unrate.observations.at(-1)?.value, "% of labor force"],
    ["LF participation", civpart.observations.at(-1)?.value, "% of working-age pop"],
    ["Nonfarm payrolls", payems.observations.at(-1)?.value, "thousands of persons"]
  ].map(([label, v, sub]) => `
    <div class="kpi-card">
      <div class="kpi-label">${label}</div>
      <div class="kpi-value">${v ? (v >= 1000 ? (v/1000).toFixed(1) + 'M' : v.toFixed(2) + (label.includes('participation') || label.includes('rate') ? '%' : '')) : '—'}</div>
      <div class="kpi-sub">${sub}</div>
    </div>
  `).join('')}
</div>`

18.1 What to watch

The headline unemployment rate u has a textbook natural rate around 4%. Below 4% suggests the economy is running hot; well above signals a recession or a slow recovery.

The LFPR has been declining since ~2000 because of demographics (boomer retirements) and structural changes. A falling unemployment rate paired with a falling LFPR is ambiguous — people leaving the workforce reduce U in the numerator, but they’re not actually employed.

Nonfarm payrolls are the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s establishment-survey count. It moves with the business cycle and is the headline number on “jobs Friday.”

18.2 Source

FRED — series UNRATE, CIVPART, PAYEMS, all from the BLS Current Population Survey and Current Employment Statistics. Refreshed daily; underlying releases monthly.

md`*Last data refresh: ${unrate.last_updated || 'unknown'}.*`