Talks
Upcoming
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The rural mobilization gap in U.S. place-based tax credit
Submitted. Presents the CDE-FE decomposition result from Helfrich (2026): the apparent rural mobilization gap in NMTC is roughly 80% between-CDE selection, with the within-CDE rural penalty statistically indistinguishable from zero. Reframes the rural mobilization debate as an intermediary-selection problem.
Past
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Effective-distance bilateral exposure under sanctions
Joint with Dr. Elizaveta Gonchar. Presented preliminary results from Gonchar-Helfrich (2025), 'Trade in the Spotlight.' Effective distance reduces residual error in bilateral-trade gravity by ~18% relative to great-circle distance in the Russia sanctions panel.